Allen (allengator86) wrote,

The Missouri Bellwether Could be in Trouble

As far as the election has gone, I have kept quiet, and will continue doing so about how I am personally voting. I will be more than happy to see this thing go away as I have been on the unfortunate side of having awkward conversations with people in this area. I just want to do one more politically charged entry, because this election has been big, or whatever. I won't get this opportunity for another 4 years, so I feel vindicated enough to talk about one final subject.

What I want to discuss is something that has not come up in the news much, if at all with the past few weeks' slurry of "Joe the Plumber", "Fundamentals of the econommy are strong", "lipstick pigbulls", and Saturday Night Live skits. This is more localized, so I am sorry if this confuses any of the people who read this out of the state of Missouri. Oddly enough, I want to talk about Missouri's status in this election, and in paticular, talk about the often mentioned "Bellwether effect".

For those of you not in the know, Missouri has been called the political "Bellwether", meaning it is a barometer of the trends of the country. In simpler terms, it is the trend spotting area in America. If Missouri is doing it, than it is either in coming or in passing. The fact is that Missouri has correctly predicted every election since 1960, it started this trend in 1904, with only one miss in 1956, making it the state to fight for between presidential candidates. I mean with 11 electoral votes, Missouri can be seen as somewhat of a contributing factor in elections. The traditional thinking is that winning Missouri will bring the candidate good luck for winning the election. Are politicians superstitious? I'll leave that up for you to decide.

People claim that Missouri has earned this lofty mantel because it has a mix of all demographics, a mix of conservative and liberal, farmer with white collar, and most minorities are represented in a fractional sense. I have no idea why Missouri gets this distinction instead of some other state. I am certain California has a wider variety of people and ideas...yeah...but I guess that's how it goes.

I have been watching the campaign closely in Missouri, much closer than most to be honest. I log on to Real Clear Politics on almost a daily basis, watching the power shift between Obama and McCain over here. Everyday it is different. One day McCain is leading, the next, Obama has a respecatable lead, then McCain narrowly edges him off the next. I guess the political climate is as volitle as the actual climate over here. I will say that for the most part that Missouri has, looking at the average, supported McCain more than Obama over the course of the past few months after the painfully long primaries. I would love to say that this suprises me. *Awkward silence*

Anyways, as of this typing, McCain is leading by 0.7 points in Missouri, which means that it is anyone's race. I wouldn't be suprised if McCain gets Missouri, especially after all the ads on tv. While watching "The Amazing Race", for every Obama ad I saw, there were around 6 McCain advertisements. No joke. Both campaigns have been making stops over here. Obama was in Columbia and Springfield this past week, with Joe Biden going to Lee's Summit yesterday. Palin spoke in Jefferson City yesterday as well. I know Pennsylvania has been under a lot of political fire, but things are just crazy down here as well. Both candidates are craving some hick love.

My point is this. I am 80% sure that Obama has this election. I have been looking at the polls for a long time, and I do not think there was one time, even during McCain's surge in the polls ofter the Republican National convention, that Obama slipped under the necessary 270 electoral vote to win the election. That much I do know. This is by no means an endorsement, but that is just the facts. If Missouri votes for McCain, then we lose the bellwether status. Say what you want about our state, whether it is stereotypical or not, but I have always thought we need SOME sort of claim to fame, and if we lost this, then we can kiss goodbye to having future candidates fights for our votes. Fewer visits. Fewer rallies. If we incorrectly guess this election's winner, then the right will go to Nevada, as I am sure Tennesse will not be correct, since they are for McCain all the way.

Now I realize I could be wrong, and I am not saying "GO VOTE OBAMA", but what I am saying is that it is hard being right all the time. I will be watching the results with baited breath. I will look forward to any developments tonight, and I will probably be up til about 2 or 3 in the morning, HiYah!

My predictions: I predict that Obama will win, and McCain will get Missouri. If I am right, I get the right to show up on here and say "I told you so". If I am partially right, then I will say, "Booyah! I was still right...well...almost." If I am completely wrong, then I will say "Holy Monkey. WTH just happened?" Ok?

I also watched the classic Frank Capra film "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington", and I feel that most people should as well. It is one of the most beautifully dramatic political movie ever, and it is one of my favorite films of all time. I urge everyone to watch it once, especially before you go out and vote.

I hoped you have learned something from this. I will be blogging again later. So...later!

The Allengator
Tags: nbpm

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